Rasmussen’s breakdown of the at-risk GOP-held seats:
- 28 Republican seats are at a high level of risk.
- 14 are “moderately competitive” and lean Republican.
- 26 others could be at risk depending on the “political environment” in the fall.
“Given that midterm election dynamics typically favor the party out of power, all 20 GOP seats rated as toss-ups or tilting in the Democratic direction could easily flip from R to D in November. Adding to the challenge for Republicans is that there are very few opportunities for GOP gains. Only two Democratic seats are rated as toss-ups,” Rasmussen writes.
Rasmussen’s assessment confirms reporting by John Gizzi, chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax, in the wake of Conor Lamb’s victory in western Pennsylvania that Republicans could be staring down a loss of 60 seats in the House.
However, Rasmussen says that Republicans’ tax cuts and the civil war raging within the Democratic party could stem the blue wave this November, noting that a “good night” means losing 15-20 seats but maintaining a slight majority.
“On the other hand, there’s a lot of potential upside for the Democrats. With 68 Republican seats at risk, Nancy Pelosi’s team can dream of a victory as big as the Republican gains in 2010,” Rasmussen writes.